CERI 2015 Natural Gas Conference Proceedings


March 2-3, 2015
Calgary TELUS Convention Centre

CERI 2015 Natural Gas Conference Program

Opening Keynote Address
natural gas price in asia:  what to expect

Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock III; James A. Baker, III and Susan G. Baker Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics, and Senior Director, Center for Energy Studies, Baker Institute for Public Policy• Rice University

Session One
north American demand:  up, but it will take time

North America is in a unique position with respect to energy independence, huge resources and the technology to develop them but it is a market that is sluggish to change. The retirement of coal plants will take many years but the replacement energy systems may favour renewable systems over natural gas. From an emissions stand point, this is a beneficial situation but the fact remains that due to the sheer size of the market, natural gas will only be part of the mix. The underlying question is what will the natural gas market look like in the future?

Natural Gas Outlook for the U.S. Market
Angelina LaRose; Natural Gas Markets, Team Leader, Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis •  U.S. Energy Information Administration   

The Alberta Advantage:  Comparative Petrochemical Plant Economics in North America
Ian Morrison; Senior Principal, Project Economics • Stantec Consulting Ltd.

Where Oh Where is the Gas Price Going?
Kevin Petak; Vice President, Fuel Markets Analysis •   ICF International 

Session Two
the asia-pacific basin gas demand:  short-term or long-term highway?

LNG developers will tell you that the long-term future for LNG is bright, especially in the Asia-Pacific basin. Using a current day trend and reasonable view of the future, that vision looks quite reasonable. But, what if that trend is not sustainable for reasons of competing energy systems (hydrates), changes in demand (China) or changes in energy focus from competing countries (Russia)?

Japan Energy Security:  If Not Nuclear, Then What?  LNG or Hydrates?
Hajime Wakuda; Director General, Business Strategy Department, Oil & Gas Upstream Business Unit • Japan Oil, Gas and Metal National Corporation (JOGMEC)

China Energy Demand Scenarios:  Slow and Steady or Fast and Furious!
Heather Kincaide; Program Manager, Energy and the Environment •  Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada 

The Russian Bear:  Is Moscow Looking to the Southeast as a Hedge Against Europe?
Mikhail Krutikhin; Partner •  RusEnergy Consulting Agency   

Session Three
winners and losers in the asia-pacific lng game

If the Asian LNG market is the prize then North America should be the supplier because of the size of the domestic resources that are available to feed this market and the technology and know-how used to develop and transport LNG to that market. Canada is well positioned to participate in this opportunity, but so are others.

East Africa, Mozambique:  Potential Supplier of LNG?
James T. Jensen; President • Jensen Associates 

Alaska LNG:  How Big and the Earliest Possible Start Date
Larry Persily; Federal Coordinator •  Alaska Gas Line Projects

Gulf of Mexico:  The LNG Flood Has Started, But Where is it Going?
Rick Smead; Managing Director, Advisory Services • RBN Energy, LLC 

Session Four
what are the next hurdles that could affect the future of the industry?

2015 will be remembered as the year of change and for the oil and gas industry that change is spelled out in changes to Alberta royalties and new provincial and federal greenhouse gas regulations. In a low market price environment where the industry is struggling, what could this do to the competitiveness of the industry?

Identifying the Challenges of a Low Oil Price Environmental on the Development of Non-Conventional Oil
Dr. David Knapp; Chief Energy Economist • Energy intelligence Group, New York 

Opportunities in a Turbulent Time:  An Economic Development Perspective
Luciano Dalla-Longa; Executive Director, Energy Value and Supply Chain Branch • Alberta Innovation and Advanced Education 

Feeling the Pulse of the Investment Sector
Nicholas Lupick; Analyst, Large Cap E&P and Oil Sands • AltaCorp Capital Inc. 


Keynote Address
energy systems metrics

Christopher J. Holly; Executive Director, Energy Technical Services, Resource Development Policy Division • Alberta Department of Energy

Session Five

If Western Canada does manage to gain access to tide water, then the game becomes much more complicated. OPEC countries and other non-OPEC producers may not like a new player in the game, especially one that could potentially contribute in excess of 2 million barrels per day. What does the future look like?

Canada Participates in a North American Game - What Does the Game Look Like?
Mark Oberstoetter; Senior Manager, Canada Upstream Research • Wood Mackenzie Canada Ltd. 

Mexico Could become a Player in our Sand Box
Dr. Miriam Grunstein; Non Resident Scholar, Mexico Center, James Baker III Institute • Rice University   

Superconducting Subsurface Heating For SAGD Project
T.J. Warnerdi; President and Chief Executive Officer • PowerIn, LLC

Session Six
market access

With oil prices hovering near the $50/barrel mark, one could conclude that increased oil production from Western Canada would either plateau or decline however, oil sands projects which are currently under construction will be contributing approximately 200,000 barrels/day of new oil for each of the next three years. In the face of pipelines operating at near-capacity, the only option to access markets for new crude will be by rail. Increased rail movements could increase congestion both in Canada and the United States. This, coupled with regulatory changes to the rail tank car fleet, will make for interesting times.


Canadian Rail:  Competition Between Commodity Movement by Rail
Peter Howard; President Emeritus • Canada Energy Research Institute 

Impact of New Rail Car Safety Regulations on Crude Markets in the US and Canada
Harry Vidas; Vice President, Energy Advisory Services • ICF International