R.B. (Bob) Dunbar, Melanie Stogran, Pauline Chan, Kok-Sum (Sam) Chan
Study No. 108, March 2004
ISBN 1-896091-84-9

Non CERI Members
Report plus detailed Appendices, including model
to forecast when projects may come on stream $25,000

CERI Members
Report plus detailed Appendices, including model
to forecast when projects may come on stream $15,000

This comprehensive review of the Canadian oil sands industry arrives on the desks of stakeholders and interested parties at the most opportune moment. The crux of the report is a detailed assessment of bitumen supply costs based on the full range of extraction, production and upgrading technologies, and forecasts of production under different scenarios. And yet, the report also captures the essence of a very complex industry that is a "must-read" for someone needing a broader perspective of the value-chain and ongoing challenges.

Recent events, including a strengthening Canadian dollar, and alarming project cost over-runs, seem to have conspired against oil sands operators to drag returns expectations on mega investments to levels that test the sharpest business acumen and technical minds. In using the latest price, cost and other technology-specific assumptions, the conclusions of this report, by serving as an objective and independent assessment of oil sands economics, either confirm "noises" already being made about the viability of at least some of the planned projects, or provide a reality check for the industry as a whole.

In order to provide the best value to organizations that have specifically funded the undertaking of this study, and to CERI member organizations who continue to financially support the Institute through annual subscriptions, this study is available in several forms as follows:

• The report proper that contains the supply costs findings, a characterization of the industry (history, operations, technologies), a discussion of ongoing issues and challenges (many warranting more detailed assessment), and the conclusions. This version of the report is provided to all CERI members gratis as one of the many benefits of CERI membership.
• Three substantial appendices that contain detailed descriptions of every oil sands project (operating, proposed and planned), outputs of CERI's in-house supply cost computer model runs, and forecasts of bitumen production under different scenarios. These appendices and the report are given to organizations that provided specific funding for this study.
• To fulfill CERI's mandate as a research institute, the report and appendices will also be made available to all interested parties.
• Any component of, or the entire report, is available in paper or electronic format.

Please contact Roxanne Rees at (403) 220-2381 or rrees@ceri.ca .