A Decade of Staged Oil Sands Growth (2010 - 2020)
Canadian Oil production, which includes conventional oil, diluents, bitumen and synthetic crude oil (SCO), from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), is estimated to exceed 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2011. In addition after accounting for a resurgence of conventional oil developments and the completion of construction for 3 new oil sands projects, the production capacity out of the WCSB will approach 3.1 million bpd by the middle of 2012 and is forecasted to continue to grow crossing the 3.5 million bpd by 2013. At that point in time production will have exceeded the operational capacity of the export pipeline system leaving the WCSB either west to the port of Vancouver or east/ southeast to the Ontario and US PADD 2 markets? The next tranche of oil sands projects requires additional export capacity either in the form of new pipelines (Keystone XL , Gateway or Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Northern Leg) or increased rail transport (CN Pipeline on Rail). This study examines the economic impacts of developing these oil sands projects which have been approved by the regulator and are awaiting increased export capacity to access the market. These impacts include the construction and operation of oil sands projects alone and does not include the impacts associated with the construction or operation of the pipelines or rail systems.
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