Canada is to undertake efforts to reduce GHG emissions by 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 to meet or exceed Paris agreement commitments. Canada’s 2050 reduction targets are set at 80 percent below 2005 levels. Achieving these emissions reduction goals require transformational changes in the way we procure and consume energy. Electricity as an energy carrier has a pivotal role in achieving economy-wide emissions reductions. This study assesses energy system, environmental, and economic implications of transforming energy end-use conversion technology mix into one dominated by electricity in the residential, commercial, and passenger road transportation sectors of the 10 Canadian provinces. .
Risk Analysis of British Columbia Natural Gas Projects: Environmental and Indigenous Peoples Issues
This study discusses key environmental and Indigenous Peoples issues facing development of the natural gas and LNG industry in BC, and examines the main approaches to mitigate, manage and monitor these issues effectively.
The study is based on the review of environmental assessment (EA) applications for 29 major natural gas and LNG projects in BC that have undergone a typical EA process with the provincial or federal responsible authorities since 2010, as well as the content analysis of primary regulatory documents and issues identified in relevant case law.
The key environmental issues identified from the review include significant residual adverse effects related to greenhouse gas emissions; significant residual adverse effects and cumulative effects to rare and threatened wildlife species; and cumulative adverse impacts of natural gas development. The most common potential adverse impacts on Indigenous Peoples interests summarized in the review include but are not limited to effects on health and socio-economic conditions; physical and cultural heritage; the current use of lands and resources for traditional purposes; sites of historical and archeological significance; and potential cumulative impacts on Aboriginal interests. The study also provides examples of key approaches to mitigate the foregoing issues and stresses the importance of effective consultation and engagement with Indigenous Groups at early stages of proposed projects development.
Competitive Analysis Of The Canadian Petrochemical Sector
Globally, petrochemicals are frequently looked to as a means of economic diversification and value add in economies who rely heavily on oil and gas revenues. As the Canadian economy has been negatively affected by the fall in oil and gas prices, Canada’s petrochemical sector is an interesting one to look to for potential future growth.
CERI’s “Competitive Analysis of the Canadian Petrochemical Sector” examines the availability of petrochemical feedstock in Canada for the C1 through C3 value chains through 2030, and expands on CERI’s September 2015 study, “Examining the Expansion Potential of the Petrochemical Industry in Canada” to assess Canada’s competitive position in comparison to other petrochemical producing jurisdictions. Canada will see large available volumes of methane, ethane and propane through the study period, both with and without LNG projects coming online. However, both Canadian petrochemical clusters (Alberta and Ontario) are not well positioned on the cost basis against more competitive US Gulf Coast and Saudi Arabia when considering plant gate costs and government incentives.
Canadian Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production and Supply Costs Outlook (2016-2036)
In a low cost environment for both oil and natural gas, the future of Canada’s conventional oil and gas development is being questioned. The last two years have seen significant declines in drilling and production as Canadian supply costs are high relative to the commodity prices.
CERI’s “Canadian Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production and Supply Costs Outlook (2016 – 2036)” breaks down drilling and production forecasts as well as supply costs across the various producing regions in Canada. Total natural gas production is expected to start to rise by 2019 as the price of gas increases and drilling rates overcome well decline rates. The rise in the gas production is totally dependent on whether LNG projects will be constructed. While oil prices are expected to rise as well, conventional crude production is expected to drop slightly and remain stable throughout the study period, as growth is concentrated in the oil sands. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin will see the vast majority of both natural gas production and conventional crude oil production, however, offshore Newfoundland will contribute approximately one-tenth of the crude oil over the study period.
Development of a Hybrid Input-Output Model of the Canadian Economy
The economy and energy supply system of any jurisdiction are linked in a complex way, forming direct and indirect connections among different sectors of the economy. The objective of this research project is to develop a hybrid energy input output (EIO) model of the Canadian economy to provide a systematic framework to estimate the embodied energy of products and also to understand the structural relationship between energy systems and the general economy.
The EIO model was developed by extending the economic input-output model of the Canadian economy developed and maintained by Statistics Canada. The model is capable of producing useful information to answer energy policy questions such as estimation of embodied energy of goods and services, energy intensity of consumption decisions, and energy intensity of trade. This paper presents the EIO framework and details of implementing an EIO model of the Canadian economy. Some illustrative results, a scenario forecast based on current greenhouse gas policies and a discussion of the strengths and limitations of the model are also presented.
The Canadian natural gas market has been heavily impacted by the shale boom out of the United States, leaving many in the industry to wonder what is ahead for producers. With current depressed natural gas prices, many drilling areas that were previously profitable are no longer economically attractive. Canadian drilling and production, particularly in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, has dropped off significantly since 2012.
CERI’s “Canadian Natural Gas Market Review” shows that despite the current reduction in Canadian activity, the Canadian industry will see growth from its current levels due to the advances in horizontal drilling that enabled the shale boom, rebounding prices and growing demand for natural gas in both Canada and the United States. While the market for natural gas from Western Canada will remain impacted by the high levels of growth out of American shale plays, Canada will remain a net exporter of natural gas throughout the duration of the 20-year study period.
Heavy Barrel Competition in the US Gulf Coast: Can Canadian Barrels Compete?
Market access for oil production includes available refinery capacity for Canadian heavy oil exports to the US. Canadian heavy crude oil competes for market share in the US Gulf Coast (USGC) with heavy crude oil from Latin American producers, mainly Mexico and Venezuela. Over the past 10 years, heavy crude imports from Mexico and Venezuela have decreased leaving space for Canadian producers to establish a new market share in the Gulf. If oil sands could displace most of the Mexican and Venezuelan imports, the opportunity for bitumen blends and heavy oil would be about 1.5 MMbpd.
CERI’s latest study reveals the dynamics of the US Gulf Coast refining sector and how much Canadian heavy crude oil can be exported to the USGC. Success in this competition is important for the long term economic health of the Canadian heavy oil industry.