CERI Studies related to Oil

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OIL STUDIES RELEASED IN 2017

Economic Impacts of Canadian Oil and Gas Supply In Canada and the US (2017-2027)

Study Released August 2017

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The longest undefended border on the planet runs 8,891 kilometers and is shared between Canada and the United States, the second and fourth-largest countries, respectively. These two countries not only share the longest international boundary, but the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world with trade totaling CAD$752 billion at the end of 2016. Canadian exports to the US at end-2016 were CAD$392 billion and imports from the US were CAD$360 billion – and these totals don’t even include foreign direct investment between Canada and the US.

This study examines the economic impacts of the Canadian oil and natural gas industry on both Canadian and the US economies. This study is particularly timely, given the US administration’s mid-May 2017 notification to Congress and trading partners that it plans to renegotiate the NAFTA, effectively starting the 90-day countdown to renegotiations.

Total economic impacts from investment and operations of Canadian oil and gas projects contribute to economic growth and employment in both countries. Capital investment of CAD$380 billion and operational revenues of CAD$1.8 trillion from Canadian oil and gas projects over an 11-year period will generate CAD$2.7 trillion in Canadian GDP and 6,572 thousand person-years in Canada and US$45.6 billion in the US GSP and nearly 406 thousand jobs in the US.


Economic Potential of onshore oil and gas in new Brunswick and nova scotia

Study Released June 2017

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While Nova Scotia estimates its offshore resource potential at more than 8 billion barrels of oil (BBL) and 120 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas (CAPP 2017b), the region also has significant onshore oil and gas potential, largely stemming from unconventional resources, particularly shale gas. This study focuses on the economic potential of the Frederick Brook Shale in New Brunswick and the Horton Bluff Shale in Nova Scotia, as well as the existing McCully gas field in New Brunswick. 

These resources become more important when increased regional natural gas demands and declining rates of natural gas production in SOEP and Deep Panuke, both expected to be decommissioned by 2022, are taken into consideration. There is an impending supply gap between regional natural gas production and demand. Without a doubt, both provinces are on the cusp of a fundamental change—a nexus point.

This study explores three plausible potential scenarios moving forward: We are Importers, We are Self-sustainable and We are Exporters. Each scenario depicts the influence of high/low natural gas production and whether the current moratorium/ban is lifted or remains in place. Economic impacts taken into consideration include economy-wide impacts such as value-added GDP, jobs created (in person-years) and various forms of government revenue, including indirect, personal and corporate taxation revenues.


Economic Potentials and Efficiencies of Oil Sands Operations:  Processes and Technologies

Study Released March 2017

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This study fills a gap in assessing the potential of emerging technologies and processes to improve economic competitiveness and reduce emissions of oil sands operations. It provides a detailed quantitative analysis of supply cost and emission reduction opportunities for technological innovation in the oil sands in situ process over the short and medium terms. The assessment is performed at the production field level breaking down oil sands in situ process into seven segments: 1) Reservoir, 2) Wells and well pads, 3) Business management and data analytics, 4) Steam generation, 5) Waste and water treatment, 6) Pipelines and transport, and 7) Upgrading. More so, the technology configurations that meet minimum costs and emissions objectives can achieve potential reduction of bitumen supply cost by 34-40% and reduce fuel-derived emissions from in situ oil sands production by more than 80%.


Canadian Oil Sands Supply Costs and Development Projects (2016-2036)

Study Released February 2017

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Each year the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) publishes its long-term view for Canadian Oil Sands supply costs and production. This is the eleventh annual edition of CERI’s oil sands supply cost and development projects update. The plant gate supply costs, which exclude transportation and blending costs, are C$43.31/bbl for a SAGD project and C$70.08/bbl for a stand-alone mine. A comparison of field gate costs from the August 2015 update indicates that, after adjusting for inflation, the supply cost for a SAGD producer has fallen by 27 percent, and 6 percent for a stand-alone mine.

Total production from oil sands areas totaled 2.53 MMBPD in 2015, growing 9.6 percent year-over-year. Production from oil sands includes an increasing share of Alberta’s and Canada’s crude oil production. In 2015, non-upgraded bitumen and SCO production made up 62 percent of total Canadian crude production and 78 percent of Alberta’s total production.

In CERI’s High Case Scenario, production from mining and in situ projects is set to grow to 3.5 MMBPD by 2020 and 5.9 MMBPD in 2030, peaking at an all-time high of 6.6 MMBPD by 2036. In the Low Case Scenario, production rises to 3.3 MMBPD in 2020, 3.8 MMBPD by 2030 and 4.5 MMBPD by the end of the forecast period. CERI’s Reference Case Scenario provides a more plausible view of the oil sands production. Projected production volume will increase to 3.4 MMBPD by 2020 and 4.8 MMBPD in 2030, peaking at 5.5 MMBPD by 2036.


Oil Studies released in 2016


Oil Studies released in 2015

Oil Studies released in 2014

To view a complete publication list click here.  To obtain copies of older reports (subject to availability), please email mailto:info@ceri.ca

archived CERI oil Studies