ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND MARKET CHALLENGES FOR THE METHANE TO DERIVATIVES PETROCHEMICAL SUB-SECTOR
The Petrochemical sector in Canada has a significant economic impact. Aside from the cost competitiveness issue of the ethane to ethylene sub-sector, industry is considering other aspects including the methane to derivatives groups, such as methanol, fertilizers and other derivatives. The study will focus on technically and commercially feasible methane-derived products – with only technologies at commercial or near-commercial stages considered. This project will determine the economic viability of commercial deployment as well as assess the supply of and demand for methane-derived products with significant market potentials. Non-cost elements which have an influence on economic impacts of the sub-sector be will evaluated and recommendations made based on how other jurisdictions address these issues.
Anticipated Completion: April 2018
CARBON MANAGEMENT IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY MARKETS IN CANADA
This project is designed to gain insights into challenges and opportunities carbon management policies impose on the electricity systems in Canada. The objectives of the study include the following: i) how the design of a carbon management policy affects electricity rates and the economy in general; ii) assess the impact on electricity rates for residential, commercial, and industrial customers; iii) assess the impacts of changes in electricity rates on different industrial sectors; iv) assess the value of inter jurisdiction electricity trade resulting from implementation of carbon management policies.
Anticipated Completion: April 2018
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF OIL SANDS PRODUCTION IN CANADA
As part of an annual update, a forecast of oil sands bitumen and SCO production will be conducted for 2017-2037. In addition, to updating the production costs in oil sands and production forecast, economic impact analysis will be developed using CERI’s Input/Output model for Canadian impacts. This is (CERI’s) twelfth annual oil sands industry update, examining production, supply costs, and constraining factors for oil sands development. Every year CERI published its long-term outlook by scenario for Canadian oil sands production and supply.
Anticipated Completion: April 2018
ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF TRANSITIONING TO RENEWABLE AND CLEANER ELECTRICITY GRID IN WESTERN CANADA BY 2030
This project will consider alternative pathways transforming the electricity grid in the four western provinces: British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The project will build high resolution spatially and temporally explicit interconnected electric power systems of the four provinces. Using the model the project will assess different pathways to achieve deeper emissions reductions, impacts on the system reliability, value of trade, and impacts on electricity rates. The project will also provide insights into necessary attributes of technologies and system configurations that would facilitate the transition to cleaner electric power systems.
Anticipated Completion: May 2018
COMPETITITIVE ANALYSIS OF CANADIAN LNG
This study focuses on examining Western and Eastern Canadian LNG supply costs and competitiveness factors in comparison with two other major producers US Gulf of Mexico and Australia. The study will review key elements of supply costs and competitiveness of projects in abovementioned four locations, including capital costs, operating costs, taxes and royalties including carbon tax regimes, upstream gas prices and transportation to LNG plants. In each location, a representative project will be taken into analysis or a generic one with a similar capacity. The study will also compare a) delivered costs of Western Canadian LNG, US Gulf of Mexico, Australian LNG with LNG prices at a representative Asia import location, and b) delivered costs of Eastern Canadian LNG, US Gulf of Mexico with LNG prices at a representative European and Latin American import location.
Anticipated Completion: May 2018
THE 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR LIMIT AND ITS IMPACT ON CANADIAN AND GLOBAL MARKETS
International Marine Organization (IMO) has set a global limit for sulphur in fuel oil used on board ships of 0.50% m/m (mass by mass) from current 3.5% starting January 2020. This will significantly reduce the amount of sulphur oxide emanating from ships and should have major health and environmental benefits for the world, particularly for populations living close to ports and coasts. Much tougher rules governing emissions from ships plying international waters soon will force change on the energy industry. This research will evaluate impacts from this regulation on the Canadian crude oil industry.
Anticipated Completion: June 2018
Economic Impacts and Emissions Profiles of the Petrochemical Industry in Canada
This project will consider the economic impacts of the petrochemical industry in Canada. It will also assess the emissions profiles of the various sub-sectors in Canada, the US and Qatar. In assessing the emissions profiles, CERI will examine government emissions policies and potential technologies to reduce emissions.
Economic and Environmental Impacts of Methane Emissions Reduction in the Natural Gas Supply Chain
The production process for natural gas results in venting and flaring activities. Natural gas processing also creates emissions, including those from consumption. This study will quantify the economic and environmental impacts of methane emissions reduction throughout the full supply chain of natural gas. The study will also include a consideration of hydrogen additions to the natural gas stream and methane release and capture from municipal solid waste facilities and other similar locations.
Market Review of Natural Gas Liquids Exports
This research will provide an update of NGLs production and assess foreign investment attraction of Western Canadian NGL’s for liquids exports to Asia, determine pricing mechanisms and in some cases the lack of transparency in pricing of NGLs. The project will also consider the availability and opportunity of NGLs in Atlantic Canada.
Economic and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicle Transportation Scenarios
Fuel sales for passenger and freight vehicles are underpinned by wholesale and retail infrastructure. This investment plus commodity sales has a major impact on the Canadian economy. Without the sale of transportation fuels, these investment costs, commodity sales and tax revenues will have no value. However, changing the transportation system to reduce GHG emissions through new technology adaptation is being proposed as a major mechanism to achieve climate change mitigation goals. Some common examples are fuel switching and electrification of transportation. This study will develop several future transportation scenarios for Canada and provide economic and environmental analyses of them considering factors such as macroeconomic impacts, R&D needs, and infrastructure inertia.
The project will consider two or three jurisdictions including Ontario and Quebec.
An Economic Assessment of a Clean Fuel Standard in Canada
This research will focus on the economic and environmental impacts of moving to a clean fuel standard in Canada. It will consider the impacts on the agriculture, oil and retail gasoline sub-sectors. The project will document the emissions reduction expected from such a standard and what the impact might be when the implementation of this standard is compared to electrification of the transportation sector.
Multi Attribute Evaluation of Electricity Storage Systems
Electric energy storage (EES) systems are in a rapid development phase. They are considered as critical to enable transitioning to a cleaner a more versatile electric power system. The most commonly cited application of EES is arbitraging variable generating sources such as solar and wind matching them with the demand. However, there are numerous other applications of EES in traditional and modern grids, such as ramping, black start, demand response, voltage support etc. The perceived benefits of EES has led to new EES technology developments, demonstration projects, and research projects that quantify the benefits of EES systems. Despite these developments, implementations of EES systems have been limited to few demonstration projects and a significant uptake of EES has not been observed. The high capital costs of EES systems have been identified as one main barrier for deployment. In addition to the capital costs, other non-technical barriers include some regulatory treatments of EES that may prevent them from tapping into multiple revenue streams and limitations of evaluation methods utilized to quantify benefits of EES.
This study will evaluate the full value of EES by applying a techno economic modeling framework to electric power systems of Canadian provinces. The study intent to provide insights into market opportunities for different storage technologies, attributes of different technologies should carry to provide intended services, and contributions of EES to achieve energy, environmental, and economic goals set by different provinces.
- Maintenance of CERI Models and Programs
Ongoing maintenance and upgrading of CERI computer models and programs
- Maintenance of CERI Databases
Ongoing maintenance and upgrading of CERI databases
- Natural Gas Report
Research and updating of CERI’s Quarterly Natural Gas report, the results of which are used in other ongoing projects
- Oil Report
Research and updating of CERI’s Quarterly Oil report, the results of which are used in other ongoing projects
- Electricity Report
Research and updating of CERI’s Quarterly Electricity report, the results of which are used in other ongoing projects
- Geopolitics of Energy
Geopolitics of Energy (GOE) is the leading monthly journal on geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets. It provides analysis, information, perspectives and fresh ideas on the political and economic factors affecting energy and their impact on national energy policies, the international environment and prices.
*Study titles and completion dates subject to change
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